NFL Week 15 Picks

As Lil Wayne eloquently said back in 2008, “I ain’t kinda hot, I’m sauna. I sweat money and the bank is my shower.” I’ve gone 4-2 in consecutive weeks to bring my season total to 25-14-3. It still isn’t too late to hop on the gravy train.

 

To review my Week 14 picks:

Washington Redskins (-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles WIN

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars WIN

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns WIN

Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Tennessee Titans LOSS

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (+3) WIN

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ New York Giants LOSS

Here’s what I learned last week:

  1. Again, you live by the Eli, you die by the Eli. Also, I’m not NFL coach but to beat the Giants I think that all you have to do is eliminate the Odell Beckham Jr slant route. Play an inside position on him and make Eli dump it down the sidelines instead of giving him the easy completion across the middle.
  2. Either the Denver Broncos are sneaky bad, or the Tennessee Titans are sneaky good. Take that as you will.
  3. If there’s some sort of storm in the forecast and it shares a name with a starting quarterback, you bet the rent on that guy’s team.
  4. DeSean Jackson will score a long touchdown and walk into the end zone backwards in every single game he plays against the Philadelphia Eagles for the rest of his career.

 

Now onto this week’s picks.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

After last week’s loss to the New England Patriots:

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After this week’s game vs the Philadelphia Eagles:

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The Ravens lost a tough one in New England last Monday night, and are now on the outside looking in on the playoff hunt. They are only one game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North race, and they square off in Week 16 on Christmas Day. This is a must win for the Ravens, and I think Joe Flacco breaks the Flaccometer by throwing for 4 TDs. The Ravens have found a stud in rookie RB Kenneth Dixon, and his versatility was brought to light in last week’s primetime game. Steve Smith Sr is healthy, Mike Wallace is bound to burn some poor Philly CB, and Dennis Pitta is always a threat to go off with his pal Joe.

The Eagles lost a big one at home last week to the Washington Redskins and are virtually out of playoff contention. WR Jordan Matthews returned from his injury, but it is too little, too late for an Eagles team that has massive voids all over the field. They will also be without RBs Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood, leaving injury prone Ryan Mathews as their lone threat at RB. The Eagles secondary has been a liability all year, and I think that Joe Flacco picks them apart through the air.

Green Pay Packers (-5.5) @ Chicago Bears

Green Bay is going to be packin’ heat this Sunday in Chicago. The high is supposed to be ZERO degrees Fahrenheit. Green Bay has been on a roll during their three game winning streak, winning by 14, 8, and 28 against good teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Seahawks. While the weather may take a toll on the pace of pay and the amount of points (hint: take the under around 40ish), I think that the Packers will keep up their streak on the backs of Ty Montgomery, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams. I also don’t think that the cold will be too much of a factor, given the Packers’ breakthrough tent technology they’ve brought onto the sidelines:

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In Chicago Bears news, WR Alshon Jeffery is returning from his 4 game suspension but without Jay Cutler throwing the ball to him I donnnnnttttt caaaaaaarrrrreeee. Green Bay’s defense has been getting healthier and better, and I think that they keep an injured Chicago team in check. Packers might win this game 17-7 or some nonsense like that.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Guess who’s back, back again. AP’s back, tell a friend.

I was all over this pick before this news broke. The Vikings had a big bounce back win last week at Jacksonville after consecutive losses by a combined 5 points. The Colts lost a tough game in Houston. Indianapolis will be without WR Donte Moncrief, and his backup, Phillip Dorsett is listed as questionable. This will allow the great Minnesota corners to keep an eye on star WR TY Hilton the entire game and force less talented receivers to beat them. With Adrian Peterson back in the equation, I think that the Colts’ defense has trouble containing him, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph all at once.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

The Tennessee Titans give up a lottttt of yards through the air. Although Chiefs QB Alex Smith doesn’t really air it out deep where Tennessee is most vulnerable, he has some of the most dynamic weapons in the league. TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill have been the go to guys for Kansas City this year while Jeremy Maclin has battled through some injuries. Kelce has had 4 straight games of 100+ yards receiving, and Hill is so fast, he makes fast players look….not fast.

*Nailed it*

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The Titans are good, but I don’t think that their defense is capable of stopping this Chiefs team. They allow 292 passing yards per game, and Alex Smith doesn’t make a whole lot of mistakes. He has only thrown 5 interceptions this year and is the master of the ‘game manager’ role. With the speedy Tyreek Hill and the brute strength of Travis Kelce, Alex Smith’s short pass game turns into long gains in the blink of an eye.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (-10)

In what should already be a bloodbath, Bills’ Sammy Watkins is now 100% healthy. The Browns have only covered the spread twice this season. The Bills still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, and Rex Ryan is reportedly on the hot seat, so I don’t think they let this game get close. Shady should have himself a day running the ball, and as long as Mike Gillislee doesn’t vulture some goal line touches, he could go for 150+ yards and 2+ TDs.

 

There it is. Five picks. Five wins. Call me DJ Khaled because you’re about to ride with me through the journey of more success.

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