Wild Card Weekend Picks

That’s right, we’re talking about playoffs.

Wild Card Weekend is finally upon us. And luckily, we get to watch 3 backup QBs show us what they’ve got on the national stage. There’s a lot to get into, so let’s do it.

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Houston Texans

You may have to pay for the whole seat in Houston but you’ll only need the EDGE. Connor Cook vs Brock Osweiler is the matchup we need to kickoff Wild Card Weekend. In a tradition as old as time, the Houston Texans are hosting the 4:25 slot on Saturday afternoon in a rematch of that unforgettable Week 10 matchup in Mexico City. Now, these are two very different teams than they were only 8 weeks ago. While Brock started that game, he has since been benched for Tom Savage, only to be reincarnated after Tom took a Savage AF blow to his head. On the other side of the coin, Derek Carr broke his leg in Week 16, opening the door for Matt McGloin. All signs were pointing towards McGloin taking on his old Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien this weekend, until McGloin injured his shoulder in Week 17. Which means…..

Connor Cook was the Raiders 4th round pick in this year’s draft. He was a 3 year starter at Michigan State University and he went 34-5 during that span. Unlike his predecessor Kirk Cousins, Cook didn’t have a man named Le’Veon Bell in his backfield to make his life easy. Cook worked with current Bears RB Jeremy Langford and current Dolphins CB Tony Lippett  (played WR in college) to only lose 5 games over 3 years, while amassing over 9,000 career yards, 71 TDs, and 2 Big Ten Championships. Connor Cook was a proven winner in college, and I liked his professional potential more than many QBs taken before him in the draft, including Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, and Cody Kessler. Quite frankly, Connor Cook was a steal in the 4th round. Now, he has a chance to prove himself in the pros as the 1st QB to ever make his first career start in a playoff game. He has a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at his disposal, as well as the three headed dog of Latavius Murray, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington (1,746 yards between them) at RB. Connor Cook plays with a swagger that not a lot of QBs have, and in college he would lower the shoulder against defenders and even completely turn his back on the defense before throwing a pass.

Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are begrudgingly trotting back out their $18 million man in Brock Osweiler. They have a hobbled RB in Lamar Miller that is coming back this week, but still won’t be 100%. Brock has made WR DeAndre Hopkins a non-factor this season, which is a massive disappointment after what he was able to do with Brian Hoyer the year before. He has completely disappeared in some games and only put up 4 TDs this year.

I’m putting blind faith into my guy Connor Cook and I expect want the Oakland Raiders to win straight up.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-8)

Here’s the tale of the tape:

Matthew Stafford’s hand/finger injury has taken this team into a downward spiral. The Detroit Lions have an atrocious defense, and they have relied on Stafford to keep them in games with some late 4th quarter heroics. However, this injury has really bothered Stafford and he hasn’t been able to make the plays that he was making earlier this season. Plus, his main security blanket in RB Theo Riddick has been placed on IR. Riddick was a decent running back, but he was a great pass catcher with 10+ catch upside on any given day. That, plus the descent of Marvin Jones is just a recipe for disaster for the Lions.

For Seattle, they’ve been hit with the injury bug a bit themselves. Speedy WR Tyler Lockett suffered a leg injury and was placed on IR. The Seahawks signed veteran Devin Hester to take his spot. Hester started off Super Bowl XLI with a kick return touchdown for the Chicago Bears, and the Seahawks hope that he has another one of those left in the tank. With the loss of Lockett, the Hawks are going to need to find somebody other than Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham to get the ball to. The Seattle run game has yet to get themselves going since they released Christine Michael, and WR Jermaine Kearse has only caught 41 out of the 90 passes thrown his way. If Seattle wants to make a run, I think that 3rd year man Paul Richardson will have to step up.

I think that Seattle dominates the time of possession in this game and the Legion of Boom creates a couple of turnovers to seal the deal. Richard Sherman and the boys are hungry and want a shot at redemption for the Super Bowl, and they might eat the Lions alive at home to get a shot at Atlanta next week.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10)

The Killer B’s are back in town. Big Ben, Bell, and Brown all took a week hiatus and should be fully locked and loaded to take on a Miami Dolphins team that I don’t think is very good at all. The Dolphins defense is an atrocity; they’ve allowed 4,101 passing yards this season as well as another 2,247 on the ground. Le’Veon Bell must be licking his chops. The Dolphins also were lit up last week by the New England Patriots, who were playing for nothing. Julian Edelman set a career high in receiving yards and exploded for a 77-yard TD in which Michael Floyd may have killed CB Tony Lippett on a block. You know a guy on the Steelers that is essentially Julian Edelman on steroids? Antonio Brown. He might as well set up camp in the end zone because he’ll be living there this week.

Now, what about Week 6, when the Miami Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-15 in Miami? I’ll tell you about Week 6. Big Ben suffered a torn meniscus in that game and decided to play through it, and ended up throwing for only 189 yards and 2 INTs. Numerous Steeler defenders were also violently throwing up on the field due to the hot and humid weather. Jay Ajayi took advantage of this and ran for 204 yards and 2 TDs. But now, the tables have turned:

How many times have we seen Big Ben light up the scoreboard in freezing temperatures? Need I bring up his home/road splits again?

10 points is a lot, so I can’t blame you if you take the Dolphins +10, but I could see the Steelers Le’Veon a Prayer and having him go for 3 TDs. Oh yeah, backup QB Matt Moore will be playing for the Dolphins, also.

New York Giants (+5) @ Green Bay Packers

First off, this is worth mentioning:

The similarities between the 2007, 2011, and 2016 New York Giants are uncanny. They are all built around strong defenses which included a formidable defensive line. 2007 had Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and Robbins. 2011 had Osi, Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Chris Canty. This year, while JPP is hurt (he’ll return next week if New York advances), the Giants still boast Snacks Harrison, Olivier Vernon, and new favorite Romeo Okwara.

All 3 teams obviously had Eli Manning running the show. You live by the Eli, you die by the Eli, and all three teams hit their stride at the right time at the hands of some excellent talent. 2007 had Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Jeremy Shockey. 2011 had Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. This year still has Cruz in the rotation, with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard rounding the team out.

One position that was strong for the Giants in 2007 and 2o11 was running back with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants may have found their guy for the postseason in rookie Paul Perkins. However, their secondary is light-years better this year than in either of their previous Super Bowl seasons. While Giants fans may shudder at the thought of Aaron Ross, Corey Webster, or Prince Amukamara, this year’s team has one of the best units in the league in Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Eli Apple.

If I’m a Green Bay fan, I’m shaking in my boots. I think this game comes down to how the QBs pick apart their opponent’s secondary. The Packers have been exploitable all year through the air, and they just lost another defensive back, Quentin Rollins last week. Meanwhile, the Giants boast one of the best secondaries in all of football. DRC is coming off of a 2 INT week, Janoris Jenkins has been resting the past couple weeks, and Landon Collins is in the discussion for defensive player of the year. However, Aaron Rodgers has been playing like an absolute madman over the past 6 weeks. With the odds stacked against him, he led the charge to run the table and win the NFC North. Jordy Nelson is finally back to being himself on the field coming off of his ACL injury. Davante Adams has become one of the best #2 guys in the league, replacing Randall Cobb. And now all of a sudden big man Geronimo Allison is hitting stride with Rodgers. Add in a healthy Jared Cook and the Packers can now spread the field with 4+ weapons. The key for the New York Giants is to not allow Aaron Rodgers to hold the ball and pick apart their secondary. They’re going to need to apply pressure with Snacks and Vernon while dialing up a few blitzes along the way.

On the other hand, Eli Manning has the most electric WR in the league in Odell Beckham, a budding star in Sterling Shepard, and a guy who catches the ball and falls down in TE Will Tye. The secondary that he will be going up against is one of the most exploitable and inexperienced in the entire league. Eli Manning will either have a 300 yard game with 4 TDs, or a 150 yard game with 3 INTs. Playoff Eli Manning is either lights out amazing or “lets draft a QB in the 1st round next year” level bad.

I am totally bought into the Giants repeat hype train and I think that them being 5 point underdogs is criminal. If they lose this game, I don’t think it’s by any more than a field goal.

Also, can we stop talking about this?

The Giants receiving core flying to Miami to celebrate during an off day is a NON STORY. I’m sure they were drinking and doing some fun stuff, but at least their hands are empty in this picture. The alleged joint in this picture is being held by none other than rapper Trey Songz. There was even a video that picked up Sterling Shepard in the background telling a woman that he couldn’t take adderall because he plays football. The only thing criminal about this picture is the fact that half of these guys are wearing jeans and boots on a boat in Miami. These guys having a good time on a day off 6 days before a game should be applauded. I don’t see how this can be an issue while baseball and basketball teams can pop champagne and pound beers on national television when they have a game within the next couple of days. People getting up in arms about this makes no sense. A group of guys from the same team are spending time together having fun. Back in my day that was called team bonding. Even Eli had a joke about his teammates:

This is a non story and people’s reactions only tell me that they are nervous about the New York Football Giants. They’ve seen this movie twice in the past decade and are praying that the Green Bay Packers knock them out before they really get their eyes set on the Super Bowl.

 

End rant. Exit stage left. Call me the Giants receiving core because we’re about to fly down to Miami with all of our winnings.

P.S. Take Alabama -6.5 if you know what’s good for you and your wealth.

NFL Week Four Picks

I had my worst week of the year last week, in which I still went .500. You can blame that on some of the worst quarterback play I’ve ever seen from Carson Palmer and Cam Newton. Also, I went on a mini tangent before Week 2 saying how West Coast teams do not perform well on the East Coast during the 1 PM slot. I promptly said to ignore that advice last week with the Cardinals. Everyone makes mistakes, and Rome wasn’t built in a day. Despite the subpar performance last week I am still 9-4 on the season. We’re going undefeated this week.

Recapping Week Three:

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) @ Buffalo Bills LOSS

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Denver Broncos (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals WIN

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (-7) LOSS

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Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) WIN

 

This is going to be a big bounce back week, here’s the picks:

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Buffalo Bills are coming off of a surprising win against the Arizona Cardinals at home, while the New England Patriots are coming off of a dominating Thursday Night performance against the Houston Texans. The one advantage of playing a Thursday Night Football game on short rest is that you then get 3 extra days of rest and preparation for the next Sunday. Bills WR Sammy Watkins has once again been ruled out, and Rex Ryan has said that there is now “major concern” over his foot…..which now that I’m typing this out makes a whole lot of sense. (Only NYJ fans circa 2009-2012 would get that)  Unfortunately for the Bills, the injury report on Sammy Watkins is not the only thing that Rex Ryan has said this week. He’s been back to his old ways of making jokes and impressions, which is a bold move coming from the coach of a 1-2 team. Here he is doing a Bill Belichick impression:

And here he is posing as a fake reporter to get some inside scoop on WR/potential QB Julian Edelman:

Yes, its all fun and games, but from his tenure with the Jets I have learned that the Patriots don’t play these games. This is locker room material that I think the Patriots will use as extra motivation to hang points on the Bills. Also, the rumors of Rex Ryan being successful against the Pats are wildly untrue. In the regular season he is 3-11 career against Bill Belichick coached teams and is 0-7 at Gillette.

Jimmy Garoppolo has been practicing all week and there seems to be a decent chance that He’ll get the start. Another name worth mentioning that will be getting more than the 14 snaps that he logged last week; Rob Gronkowski. Pats by a million.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ New York Jets

Prove me wrong, Green. After Ryan Fitzpatrick’s terrible game last week against the Chiefs, I do have recency bias against him and the Jets. However, there are a few factors that have helped me feel confident about this pick. First and foremost, Russell Wilson is slated to play.

Wilson’s rushing numbers have been way down compared to his previous 4 seasons, only logging 33 rushing yards through 3 games. Either way, he’s a proven winner who gets the job done in crunch time (unless he’s throwing a goal line slant in the Super Bowl). The Jets D must have been salivating at the thought of rookie QB Trevone Boykin getting the start, but instead they have to prepare for one of the perennial QBs in the NFL.

The Jets also announced early on Friday that WR Eric Decker will be ruled out for this week’s game, which now opens the door for the Legion of Boom to focus on the banged-up Brandon Marshall. Richard Sherman doesn’t often shadow the opponent’s #1 guy, but I think that this week he’ll see more of Marshall than he won’t. Marshall hasn’t shown any signs of brilliance yet this season, so I don’t expect him to make any big moves on Richard Sherman. This makes Quincy Enunwa the guy that can make or break the game for the Jets. As good as he has been playing this year, I think part of it has to do with him being the 3rd option behind Decker and Marshall. I’m not sure if he’s ready to be the go-to guy quite yet.

The Jets also signed TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins after he was released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers following his DUI arrest. A major factor for this game will be how often he can be on the field and how effective he will be out there. Off the field problems aside, ASJ has some very impressive skills on the field, shown in this Week 1 TD catch vs. Atlanta:

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-8)

Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals were embarrassed last week in a 33-18 loss against the Buffalo Bills to fall to 1-2. Still a favorite in the NFC, I think that Bruce Arians and the Cardinals put up a lot of points and coast to victory in this game to send a message to the rest of the league. The last time these 2 teams met last year with virtually the same teams, the Cardinals won 27-3 on the road. Palmer threw for 356, David Johnson had 120 yards from scrimmage, while John Brown and Michael Floyd both put up 100 yard games. Also, the last home game the Cardinals played was Week 2, when they won 40-7 against the Buccaneers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result this week. Carson Palmer is averaging nearly 275 yards passing per game, while the Rams give up 266 a game on defense. The Rams also give up 100 rushing yards per game, so I think this will be David Johnson’s first really big game of the year.

Todd Gurley is averaging 2.9 yards a carry in 3 games this year, which is an atrocious stat from the former rookie of the year. Chandler Jones and the rest of the Cardinals D Line are going to eat him up. Kenny Britt has had a decent season thus far, as has Tavon Austin, but they’ll be paired up against the likes of Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. This could be a disaster game for Rams QB Case Keenum.

 

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Chicago Bears

I will continue to bet against the Bears as long as they are less than 10 point underdogs. As a healthy team, they lost to the Texans by 9 in Week 1, they lost to the Eagles by 15 in Week 2, and they lost to the Cowboys by 14 in Week 3. The Bears are still banged up all over their roster, and all signs are pointing towards Brian Hoyer starting at QB and 5th round pick Jordan Howard starting at RB this week. The top 3 defensive backs on the Bears are fighting injuries and are sitting on the injury report as ‘Questionable’ for the 2nd week in a row. Even if they do play, they won’t be at 100%, which completely opens the door for Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Eric Ebron to go crazy. Going into this week, Matthew Stafford was ranked #3 in the NFL in passing yards, and I think that he could end up #1 at the end of this week. I have a theory that having Calvin Johnson on his team was actually detrimental to his success but that’s for another day. Lions RB Ameer Abdullah is on Injured Reserve and is expected to miss the rest of the season, which opens the door for pass catching back Theo Riddick to be the number one guy. I think that Detroit’s aerial attack is going to be too much for the Chicago Bears to keep up with, and Brian Hoyer will make numerous mistakes passing the ball.

 

Well, there you have it. This is a 4-0 week. Call me Don Shula because we’re going undefeated.

President Obama Hosts The 1972 Superbowl Champion Miami Dolphins

 

Everything You Missed From The NFL – Week 2

Week 2 is in the books, time to show you everything you missed. Hit it, Odell:

The rematch from last season’s 52-49 Saints victory which included 14 touchdowns did not  nearly live up to expectations this week. There was only one offensive touchdown. Next week comes the highly anticipated return of the Odell-Josh Norman saga. In case you need a reminder, this is where it left off:

Ding, Ding. New Orleans Saints 13 @ New York Giants 16

Trevor Siemien (22-33 266, 0 TD 1 INT) had himself a decent day as he rode Von Miller (7 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF) and the Denver Defense’s coattails to victory. In what would have been Peyton’s best performance a year ago, Siemien truly channeled his inner Manning and dropped the infamous ‘OMAHA’ call at the line. That sent a shiver down the Indy D’s spine and the Broncos cruised to their 2nd straight victory.

Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Denver Broncos 34

Loser: Taunting

Let the kids play, stripes! I’m old enough to remember when the NFL was filled with characters such as Chad Johnson Ocho Cinco, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss, and the only thing more electric than their performances on the field were their theatrics after a TD.

RIP in Peace, fun NFL.

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Loser: Being QB1 on the Browns

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Talk about a high turnover rate. RG3 lasted less than one game before going down with what is being reported as a “potentially serious shoulder injury.” Insert Josh McCown and he follows suit, going down with a left shoulder injury that could sideline him for up to 4 weeks. Now at the helm is rookie Cody Kessler, who must be loading up on the shoulder pads given this recent trend.

PS, is it almost time?

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UPDATE: One day, one day.

Loser: Oakland Raider’s D

The Oakland Raiders have given up 69 points in the first 2 weeks, as well as over 500 total yards in each game. Per Pro Football Reference, this Raiders team is the first team since the 1967 Atlanta Falcons to allow consecutive 500+ yard games to start the season. Led by Khalil Mack, Sean Smith, Bruce Irvin, and eventually Aldon Smith and Mario Edwards Jr, this was supposed to be a formidable Raiders defense to help catapult Oakland into the playoff race. But instead, they’ve been getting dragged all over the field, and even Ice Cube has taken notice:

Atlanta Falcons 35 @ Oakland Raiders 28

Winner: Dual Threat QB Matthew Stafford

Tell a guy he has to throw passes to 36 year old Anquan Boldin instead of Calvin Johnson and he’s gonna take out his anger on unsuspecting DBs. They call him Perish Cox for a reason because RIP in Peace.

As cool as the other side of the pillow:

Tennessee Titans 16 @ Detroit Lions 15

Winner: Stefon Diggs

Sam Bradford’s Minnesota Viking debut was a great success (s/o Borat) mainly due to a career game by Stefon Diggs. Adrian Peterson went down with a knee injury and despite the offense becoming one dimensional after the fact, Diggs continued to flourish, catching 9 out of 11 targets for 182 yards and an incredible touchdown.

Green Bay Packers 14 @ Minnesota Vikings 17

Winner: The Master of Disguise

Former Patriot great and original Julian Edelman Wes Welker was all over the headlines this week as word spread that he was meeting up with old friend and teammate Tom Brady to have a catch. Fast forward a couple days and Welker reemerges donning a #FakeBrady shirt with a mask that would freak out even Jason Voorhees. This has been the biggest week for Wes Welker in the media since his Kentucky Derby extravaganza.

Hey Wes, people don’t forget:

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Week 5 cannot come fast enough for the Patriots, as Jimmy Garoppolo left the game in the 2nd quarter with a sprained AC joint. There is hope that he may be able to return as a backup this Thursday, but I would say that is unlikely. Jimmy G and his New England offense were rolling on all cylinders before his injury however, as he was driving down the field with a 21-0 lead. Now playing QB is Jacoby Brissett, the 2016 3rd round pick. His college stats don’t jump off the page, but he did put together a 6-9 92 yard stat line in half of a game while conserving the lead. The backup quarterback for Week 3 is someone who played QB at Kent State and famously made this play:

Miami Dolphins 24 @ New England Patriots 31

The NFL had another week jam-packed with fantastic catches and jaw dropping runs. Andre Johnson reminded everyone he was still in the league, Larry Fitzgerald continued to laugh at the doubters, and all 250 pounds of LeGarrette Blount straight up hurdled a man. The NFL never disappoints. Here’s Mossed & Sauced.

Mossed:

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Sauced:

 

It was a great week of football. Until next time, watch Jon Gruden assault Sean McDonough with a pool noodle.